Bill Gurley的博客分享的很多思考是理論層次的。博客名字取得很好,叫萬(wàn)人
Bill Gurley的博客分享的很多思考是理論層次的。博客名字取得很好,叫萬(wàn)人之上(“Above the Crowd“)。
誠(chéng)然,文章有高下:萬(wàn)人喃喃不如哲人一語(yǔ)。
每篇文章大抵分為這五個(gè)價(jià)值層次:
情緒(無(wú)價(jià)值)
信息(囿于時(shí)效)
情報(bào)(時(shí)效 + 保密性)
知識(shí)(止于實(shí)用)
智慧(“道”)
筆者認(rèn)為,當(dāng)代中國(guó)投資人里談吐間智慧密度最高的非段永平莫屬;而近日聽(tīng)的一期播客,終于在美國(guó)人里找到了棋逢對(duì)手的Jim O'Shaughnessy(后文簡(jiǎn)稱Jim);短短一個(gè)小時(shí),居然滿是金句,頗為震撼。
Jim其人,價(jià)值投資35年,創(chuàng)辦三家投資公司,OSAM資產(chǎn)管理規(guī)模60億美金,雖然不是巨富,但言語(yǔ)中充滿了哲理和開(kāi)悟。Jim祖父I.A. O'Shaughnessy曾是美國(guó)最有錢(qián)的億萬(wàn)富豪,卻在臨死前散盡家財(cái)。
本文試著摘錄一些思想,目錄如下:
1.
一個(gè)反直覺(jué)的理論
:穿越周期
2.
投資的天啟四騎士
a. 可能性和或然性
b. 蛇和回撤
c. 畫(huà)鬼容易畫(huà)人難
3.
區(qū)分人才的唯一指標(biāo)
:延遲滿足感
4.
家族財(cái)富的智慧
-- 樂(lè)善好施,以產(chǎn)遺
子孫,不如以德遺子孫
一個(gè)反直覺(jué)的理論:
穿越周期
無(wú)論如何換起止日期,在歷史上任意的20年里,美股指數(shù)的絕對(duì)回報(bào)(刨除通脹),全部是正的。
聽(tīng)到這句話的時(shí)候,筆者有點(diǎn)不敢相信自己的耳朵:這不就是“美股永遠(yuǎn)漲”嗎??
也就是說(shuō),不管你的時(shí)機(jī)有多差,從最高點(diǎn)買入,最低點(diǎn)賣出,只要是等了20年的,全都是賺的?怎么可能?
想象一下你的賣出日期是1941年12月,經(jīng)歷了大蕭條、一次世界大戰(zhàn),日本在月初剛剛轟炸珍珠港,摧毀了太平洋艦隊(duì)的主力...
即使在這個(gè)歷史最差的賣出時(shí)機(jī)清倉(cāng),你的年化收益也有3.8%!
而如果你坐穩(wěn)扶好,在最低點(diǎn)沒(méi)賣,五年后隨著諾曼底登陸和馬歇爾計(jì)劃,就會(huì)坐收額外的+136.8%的收益。
歷史上第二差的清倉(cāng)時(shí)機(jī)是2009年2月:08年金融海嘯的谷底。如果你沒(méi)有扛過(guò)黎明前的黑暗,非要在最低點(diǎn)賣出,年化收益也有3.86%。
Let’s put this into perspective. The 40 years ending in 1941 included the stock market panic of 1907, which drove down the Dow Jones Industrial Average nearly 38 percent; the World War I Era, where the period between 1910 and 1919 was one of the worst ever for stocks; AND, oh yes, the Great Depression. Finally, icing on the 40-year cake, the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. How could these last 40 years even begin to match that? Alas, they did.
If you look at all rolling 20 year periods real returns so inflation taken out there's never been a 20 year rolling period where the market in the US at least was negative. Now it has been negative in other markets. But in the United States, given the size of our economy. Given the size of our stock market. It's never been negative or a 20 year period now does that mean it will never will be no course not, some. Horrific horrible thing could happen and it could lead to a 20 year negative number. In fact, it got close for the 20 years, ending 08 but again probabilities if you can think probabilistically. And tone down and control your emotions what's going to happen is that overtime directionally. These models are going to continue to work and you know to try to be very specific and say, Yes, it will compound at 13.23 percent.
2009年三月,Jim發(fā)表了一篇短小精悍的檄文:一代人一遇的時(shí)機(jī)(“A Generational Opportunity ”),文章激起無(wú)數(shù)爭(zhēng)議、從者寥寥。十三年后的今天回看,字字珠璣,只有智慧而沒(méi)有無(wú)效的情緒,甚至于當(dāng)年的論點(diǎn)延伸至今都能牢牢立住。發(fā)文時(shí)間正是市場(chǎng)最低點(diǎn),如果當(dāng)時(shí)入市,回報(bào)驚人。
主持人問(wèn)Jim,你當(dāng)年是如何做出正確判斷的呢?Jim笑答:看那數(shù)據(jù),像是在向我們尖叫?。。ā癟he data was screaming at us!”)
天啟四騎士:Fear, Greed, Hope and Ignorance
投資的四個(gè)敵人:恐懼、貪婪、渴望和無(wú)知。
聽(tīng)Jim O'Shaughnessy講他2009年5月去和華爾街上合作多年的LP見(jiàn)面,對(duì)方指著他的公文包說(shuō):“我了解你,你包里肯定裝了很多數(shù)據(jù)、表格、ppt,來(lái)說(shuō)服我現(xiàn)在是買入的好時(shí)機(jī) —— 我不聽(tīng)不聽(tīng)!貝爾·斯登120年老店都能倒閉、美林這么大的盤(pán)子都能倒,美國(guó)肯定要崩潰了,我啥也不買!”
可能情形和或然性 Possibility and Probability
Jim當(dāng)時(shí)在最低點(diǎn)抄底,十年后回首,說(shuō)老伙計(jì)LP沒(méi)有分清“可能性”和“或然性”的區(qū)別。美國(guó)金融徹底崩潰?這當(dāng)然是一個(gè)可能情形(possibility),但是由于有美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)兜底,發(fā)生的概率足夠低,所以其實(shí)沒(méi)有或然性(probability)。
什么是或然性?
Jim口中的或然性,主要指的是通過(guò)數(shù)學(xué)期望來(lái)理性的指導(dǎo)行為。如果關(guān)注可能情形(possibility)那么出門(mén)可能被雷劈,但是如果關(guān)注或然性(probability),我們的決策應(yīng)該是每天照常出門(mén)的。
行為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)里說(shuō),人性在概率面前是不理性的,總會(huì)過(guò)度關(guān)注極端的可能性/可能情形,而無(wú)法真正的理解概率和數(shù)學(xué)期望。
Richard Thaler(理查德·塞勒 - 2017年諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)得主)的理論是,人們?cè)诮咏?的數(shù)字面前,理解力會(huì)有巨大偏差:比如,坐飛機(jī)失事的概率二十萬(wàn)分之一和二百萬(wàn)分之一的區(qū)別是多大?多數(shù)人要么聚焦于存在失事的可能性而不坐飛機(jī),要么直接選擇忽略,也就是說(shuō)由于數(shù)字足夠小,就把這個(gè)概率等同于0。
類似的,如果丟了10塊錢(qián),人們感到的沮喪,并不是損失10000塊錢(qián)的難受程度的千分之一;做一個(gè)上下幾萬(wàn)元的決策,所花的時(shí)間也并不是一個(gè)上下20元的決策的一千倍 —— 看看女同胞們?cè)谔詫毶匣ǘ嗌贂r(shí)間比價(jià)就知道啦。(男女的情緒偏差在文末論文中有提及,女性可能更適合長(zhǎng)線投資。)
蛇和回撤
Jim經(jīng)常問(wèn)客戶,你最大能接受投資賬戶多少比例的回撤?如果跌了25%你會(huì)堅(jiān)持穿越周期嗎?
在人多的會(huì)議室里,男客戶多數(shù)時(shí)候都會(huì)回答,“肯定能堅(jiān)持“!
然而搞了35年投資,他發(fā)現(xiàn)事到臨頭,滿不是這么回事?;爻返絹?lái)的時(shí)候,恐懼、貪婪、渴望和無(wú)知:投資末日的天啟四騎士會(huì)一并沖將上來(lái)。
后來(lái)他們做了個(gè)小實(shí)驗(yàn):
在大會(huì)議室里問(wèn)男客戶,“你怕蛇嗎?”
男人很多都會(huì)回答:“我不怕蛇!”
答不怕的,立刻把一條塑料蛇甩到桌面上,客戶一個(gè)個(gè)嚇得跳起來(lái) —— 中國(guó)古話講葉公好龍,誠(chéng)不我欺啊。
畫(huà)鬼容易畫(huà)人難
如果理解了文章開(kāi)頭那個(gè)反直覺(jué)的理論,就會(huì)明白,價(jià)值投資的本質(zhì)是穿越周期。理解并能防備最差的“可能情形”,但是按照“或然性”來(lái)行事,才是理性的。
主持人問(wèn)Jim,你覺(jué)得今年年底美股會(huì)漲還是跌?
Jim回答:“我們又回到了恐懼、貪婪和渴望這個(gè)主題。我無(wú)法回答你 今天 或 今年 股票漲還是跌,老實(shí)說(shuō)我一竅不通。但是隨著時(shí)間線越拉越長(zhǎng),我會(huì)越來(lái)越有判斷。
如果你問(wèn)我10年或15年的漲跌,我會(huì)從有些悲觀的態(tài)度,變成極度樂(lè)觀。(筆者按:畫(huà)鬼容易畫(huà)人難)
我甚至于不會(huì)嘗試去抓最佳時(shí)機(jī)(“Time the market”)。
我認(rèn)為馬斯克也并不去嘗試在最好的時(shí)間點(diǎn)去創(chuàng)業(yè)和交易。
看足夠久的長(zhǎng)線,美股漲,是一個(gè)或然性。
舉個(gè)例子:如果你養(yǎng)狗,你每周去超市買狗糧,一袋10美金。突然有一天,狗糧打折,變成一袋5美金了,你會(huì)怎么做?當(dāng)然是多買些,買他個(gè)四五袋囤貨?。?/p>
只有股票市場(chǎng)里,人們會(huì)在價(jià)格跌的時(shí)候,反而不買了?!保üP者按:這一段和段永平說(shuō)的“越跌越買”是一回事。)
Now we're back to fear greed and hope. And we're back to arbitraging human nature because look, I don't know what the markets are going to close today? I have no idea, zero. What at the end of this year the market will be. But as we extend our time frames, my ideas get stronger and stronger when you start asking me about 10 years 15 years, I go from being pretty bearish to being very bullish. But the default is if you could successfully time markets you would be the richest person on this planet. ?And Elon Musk, I don't think he tries to time markets. Now people who don't like him might say he did that with those coins. But the fact is those are temporary dislocations. If you will, I am much more interested in the directional movement of various asset classes and in the case of US stocks. I think directionally they're heading up. That does not mean that we might not have a wicked wicked bear market. And if the Fed decides to raise interest rates. That means that we could have a significant recession.
The challenge with all of this is let's say somebody's listening to our podcast right and they've read my book or whatever and they think that I know a lot about the market. And so they say to their significant other, you know, I just heard geodesy who's like totally always bullish on the market. He said he was worried about the market here. Let's wait. The problem is waiting until the water clears —— the water never clears. And so the default assumption that I urge all investors to do is consistently put money into the market.
It's really, really simple.
If let's say you have a dog right and you buy a weeks worth of his food. Every week at the supermarket and let's say it cost you $10 and you have enough cans to feed your dog for the next week. If you walked into the supermarket and you saw that they were having a special on the dog food and it was only $5 to buy all the cans. Do you run home and return those files in those cans of dog food of course not! You bulk up on it, you might even buy 4 weeks or 5 weeks! Only in the stock market, it seems to me, people rush to sell when the price drops.
區(qū)分人才的唯一指標(biāo):
延遲滿足感
談到如何識(shí)別人才,Jim認(rèn)為單一最重要的指標(biāo),就是延遲滿足感。
“一個(gè)人智力如果達(dá)到優(yōu)秀水平(120以上),140 IQ 和 120 IQ,對(duì)兩個(gè)人的未來(lái)成就來(lái)說(shuō)是沒(méi)有區(qū)別的。
如果有十個(gè)年輕人,我來(lái)投資他們其中一人,用未來(lái)他/她的終生收入作為回報(bào)的話,那么我會(huì)投那個(gè)最有延遲滿足感的人。因?yàn)槲ㄒ荒茴A(yù)測(cè)一個(gè)年輕人未來(lái)能否成事的,是延遲滿足感(Delayed Gratification),或者說(shuō)耐心。
PPP理論,耐心、堅(jiān)持 加 方法論(Patience Persistence Process)。我會(huì)挑選三個(gè)P最出眾的年輕人?!?/p>
說(shuō)實(shí)話,筆者覺(jué)得Patience Persistence Process,幾乎就是一回事兒啊。
王興說(shuō)的長(zhǎng)期有耐心、每天前進(jìn)三十公里,張一鳴講的延遲滿足感,左暉說(shuō)的做難而正確的事情。成功之道,往往就是如此樸實(shí)。
“不論你是高價(jià)買優(yōu)質(zhì)公司、撿煙蒂還是非共識(shí)投資,找到適合你的策略,然后就靜待其成吧。讓它自然發(fā)生。老實(shí)說(shuō),成功的投資,應(yīng)該和看著墻上的油漆漸漸風(fēng)干一樣,慢、平平無(wú)奇、毫不激動(dòng)人心?!?/p>
So yeah, there is and the data specifically is around the ability to delay gratification right and there's a study which is under some scrutiny because it apparently is not replicated. But everyone is familiar with it right and it's the one where the little kids put in the room with 2 marshmallows and I can't remember the exact way they do the study. But if he only or she only eats one they'll give him like several more. But if he or she eats 2, they don't give him anymore than it is. Basically, a proxy for that individual's ability to delay gratification and that is a really interesting marker for human beings, those who can delay gratification. Those who have patience and those who persist all of the studies that I've seen or we've conducted actually show that like raw intelligence. it's great to have, but if you took somebody who had an IQ of 100. Whatever gifted is 140 or or thereabouts and then contrasted them with somebody who has a 120 IQ, which is typically the IQ you need to get into legal or medical school. You can't make any prediction based on those 2 numbers.
This guy could be a nervous Nellie and like just flip out whenever because he's so smart, he could think of all the really out there scenario. It's about what could go wrong and this guy is just persistent.
So if I were like if you said Jim you've got to invest in the careers of these 10 young people who have distinguished themselves in investing what I would look for is persistence and patience, and the ability to follow a process. PPP patience process persistence if you persistently use a well supported by empirical evidence process. You will be rewarded will it work for you always of course not during the Times that it's not working for you, you will be ridiculed you will be called names. People make fun of you and that's just part of the drill here. As you decide you want to be Google and be the King of indexing which is by the way totally acceptable choice for many investors. In fact, I would say the preferable choice. If you are just not like us and stock market junkie. But you just know you want to save and send your kids to middle schools and have some money in retirement. That's a perfectly acceptable way to invest money.
But the idea of those 3Ps persistence process patience. Those are going to be the winners and by the way. The Warren Buffett of 2039 or 2040 is going to get there in a much, much different way than are Warren Buffett got there. He took advantage of the conditions if you will. On the ground this gets back to kind of this idea of saturated intuition, but then he grew. He used to invest like his Idol an teacher Ben Graham, who wrote the securities analysis and the intelligent investor and that was called the margin of safety and buy cigar butts and etc etc. Like super cheap's companies and then selling them when they reach when you think there were an yeah. That's 1 way to do it. None of our value stuff does that particular methodology if you do get a serendipitous. Amount of those companies, yeah, I'd say scoop him up.
But So what profit did was decide no no. I'm gonna devolve myself and he didn't and so don't sanctify any belief right because the sacred. Is unquestionable and it becomes doctrine and every time if you study history and you look at ideas. You look at institutions. You look at all of these things when you make something sacred and. If you question it your heretic or apostate very bad. Things happen learn from everyone study. Buffets study gram and duck study the momentum guides study everything that you think there is a reasonable hypothesis. Underneath for that particular school of investing you'll probably end up with a hybrid but.
It's fine, I used to. I was much more of a proselytizer. When I was young. In terms of you've got to do it this way. This is the only way right and then I realized I was young and foolish and there's a lot of different ways, the key thing. Is you've got to find something that's right for trick right and that could be very different than what's right for Jim one of the biggest mistakes I ever made? Was designing my own strategies to round one. Nation one for me, I have a really high risk tolerance and it was pointed out to me that Jim. These are like really crazy good, but when they're not working there crazy bad. And so we evolved that as well. But the point is you've got to find what's right for you and then just let it happen. Let it work. It sounded boring. I mean, successful investing, honestly, should be about as exciting as watching paint dry.
家族財(cái)富的智慧
Jim的祖父 I.A. O'Shaughnessy 是美國(guó)富可敵國(guó)的石油商人,曾經(jīng)有肯尼迪家族的十倍身家,但是在去世前陸陸續(xù)續(xù)把自己95%的財(cái)富都捐獻(xiàn)掉了。圣母大學(xué)和圣托馬斯大學(xué)等都是因?yàn)樗木栀?zèng)而興盛的。
去世的時(shí)候,鄉(xiāng)里鄉(xiāng)親都到場(chǎng),即使衣衫襤褸的乞丐都去親吻 I.A. 的額頭。
到了Jim這一代,稱得上是又一次白手起家干到億萬(wàn)富翁。
可能有人要問(wèn),這一切是為了什么呢?從財(cái)富積累的角度,如果祖父沒(méi)有散盡家財(cái),Jim也不用一輩子辛苦再重新賺錢(qián)了呀,圖個(gè)啥呀?
之前讀人類簡(jiǎn)史,尤里·赫拉利有個(gè)理論說(shuō),不是人類馴服了小麥,而是小麥馴服了人類:小麥一身嬌氣,要長(zhǎng)在松軟泥土里,燦爛陽(yáng)光下,并且怕旱怕蟲(chóng),所以人類就給小麥松土施肥燒水捉蟲(chóng),并且開(kāi)始了定居生活,人類也因?yàn)殚L(zhǎng)期的勞作得了一些諸如腰間盤(pán)突出的疾病...
當(dāng)今社會(huì)何不如此呢?不是我們賺得了財(cái)富,而是資本奴役了我們??!看看美劇《繼承之戰(zhàn)》,富二代、富三代的日子,是多么的被資本所異化,親情友情全都被撕扯的不成樣子。
成吉思汗統(tǒng)有四海,幾個(gè)兒子分封天下各國(guó),然而不過(guò)幾十年內(nèi),欽察汗國(guó)、察合臺(tái)汗國(guó)、窩闊臺(tái)汗國(guó)、伊爾汗國(guó)相互攻殺。拖雷系的元朝、伊爾汗國(guó)聯(lián)手,對(duì)付欽察汗國(guó)、窩闊臺(tái)汗國(guó),西域、漠北地區(qū)烽火連天。
過(guò)多的財(cái)富和權(quán)力的傳承,與其說(shuō)是祝福,其實(shí)多半是詛咒吧。
樂(lè)善好施
以產(chǎn)遺子孫,不如以德遺子孫
Jim祖父的智慧,頗有蘇州貝氏耕讀世家之風(fēng)。
孟子曰:“君子之澤,五世而斬?!?/p>
貝聿銘是蘇州貝氏的富十五代,祖上富有蘇州獅子林,明清皇帝下江南都來(lái)他家后花園住。
貝氏一族經(jīng)歷了數(shù)個(gè)大時(shí)代的浪濤和風(fēng)雨,不僅屹立不倒,反而歷經(jīng)15代蒸蒸日上。
其中最關(guān)鍵的便是貝氏祖訓(xùn):
以產(chǎn)遺子孫,不如以德遺子孫;
以獨(dú)有之產(chǎn)遺子孫,不如以公有之產(chǎn)遺子孫。
畢竟四世三公不常有,耕讀不輟方能傳世。
1877年,貝康侯在獅林寺巷購(gòu)屋近百間重設(shè)貝家祠堂,并捐田五百畝創(chuàng)辦“留余義莊”,以租米周濟(jì)貧困的男女族人。
義莊規(guī)定,每位無(wú)以自存的族人每月都可來(lái)領(lǐng)取二十多斤的大米以維持生計(jì)。義莊還舉辦義塾,免費(fèi)供族內(nèi)子弟求學(xué),如果考取秀才,還有四千文錢(qián)的獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)。
原來(lái)貝潤(rùn)生一直牢記當(dāng)年貝康侯設(shè)立的留余義莊對(duì)自己的恩惠,于是三十年代將自己在蘇州的田產(chǎn)全部捐出成立“承訓(xùn)義莊”,繼留余義莊以后更加熱誠(chéng)地為貝氏族人服務(wù)。正是這一決定,讓貝家在土改時(shí)期被定性為可以合作合營(yíng)的“民族資本家”,而不是作為階級(jí)敵人、清算對(duì)象的“工商大地主”。
1917年,貝聿銘出生。同年,貝潤(rùn)生花了9900銀元購(gòu)置下早已荒廢的獅子林,又花了八十萬(wàn)銀元買下周圍一千多畝地的民房宅基并打通獅子林進(jìn)行整修,園林壯麗,氣象奢華。
貝潤(rùn)生沒(méi)有把獅子林變成他的私家園林,而是全族共用,作為承訓(xùn)義莊的辦事處,也是家族祠堂和家族學(xué)校的所在地。
都說(shuō)童年接受的熏陶會(huì)影響終生。貝聿銘童年在獅子林度過(guò)了一段美好又難忘的時(shí)光。獅子林的曲徑通幽、禪宗寓意,也深深影響了貝聿銘,啟迪了他對(duì)于建筑最初的審美和靈感,產(chǎn)生了美學(xué)的萌芽。
成名后,他曾贊嘆蘇州園林的迂回曲折之美,認(rèn)為其在有限空間內(nèi)給人無(wú)限遐想,并稱這成為他個(gè)人創(chuàng)造力的啟蒙。
“創(chuàng)意是人類的巧手和自然的共同結(jié)晶,這是我從蘇州園林中學(xué)到的”。后來(lái)功成名就的貝聿銘如是說(shuō)。
命運(yùn)就是這樣神奇。貝聿銘祖先的善舉幫助了族人貝潤(rùn)生,貝潤(rùn)生購(gòu)入的獅子林又啟迪了貝聿銘的建筑靈感。這個(gè)家族靠著“樂(lè)善好施”這個(gè)家訓(xùn),實(shí)現(xiàn)了互相成就。
貝潤(rùn)生與貝聿銘的祖父貝理泰還共同捐資,在蘇州城開(kāi)辦了中國(guó)第一個(gè)新式幼稚園,十三世貝理泰,1922年起連任蘇州總商會(huì)會(huì)長(zhǎng)7年,先后發(fā)起募捐巨款開(kāi)辟了從閶門(mén)到虎丘的馬路,時(shí)稱"新馬路",擔(dān)任過(guò)吳縣救火會(huì)會(huì)長(zhǎng),博習(xí)醫(yī)院、振華女子中學(xué)董事等。
解放前夕,孔祥熙一人就卷走了一億三千萬(wàn)美元,而貝聿銘的父親、時(shí)任中銀總裁的貝祖詒遠(yuǎn)走美國(guó)之時(shí)卻沒(méi)拿走一分公款。
樂(lè)善好施、誠(chéng)信正直,這些優(yōu)秀的品質(zhì),都是這個(gè)家族能夠十幾代財(cái)富傳承不斷的原因。
貝聿銘晚年設(shè)計(jì)的蘇州博物館落成故里,命運(yùn)就是這樣的奇妙。
顯然的好處 vs. 隱含的代價(jià)
茨威格說(shuō):“命運(yùn)的饋贈(zèng),都在暗中標(biāo)好了價(jià)格?!?/p>
世人慌慌張張,不過(guò)圖碎銀幾兩;偏偏這碎銀幾兩,能解萬(wàn)種慌張,保家中老人健康,兒女入得學(xué)堂。
我們經(jīng)常會(huì)追尋那顯然的價(jià)值,而看不到隱含的代價(jià)。比如多得了那五斗米,卻放棄了氣節(jié);少付了一些工資,卻損失了雇主品牌;享受了游艇豪宅,卻脫離了勞動(dòng)人民。
錢(qián)當(dāng)然是好東西,但是在追求財(cái)富的路上,我們是否看到了隱含的代價(jià)呢?
我們是獲得了財(cái)富,還是被資本所奴役了?
我們是取得了世俗的成功,還是磨滅了智慧之光,淪為一腔驢血、滿臉大包的中年油膩老板?
三歲孫女的對(duì)話
播客的最后,Jim講起他旁聽(tīng)自己兒子和三歲小孫女的一段對(duì)話:
“Kate,你覺(jué)得人死了之后會(huì)去到哪里呢?”
“爸爸,我覺(jué)得火柴一旦燒盡了,就再也點(diǎn)不著了呀!”
那一刻,Jim被擊中了:大道至簡(jiǎn),從天真爛漫的小孫女嘴里說(shuō)出來(lái)。是啊,人生苦短,哪有什么往生呢?不過(guò)是及時(shí)行樂(lè)、廣結(jié)善緣而已罷!
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